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Paul Davis Public Recordan independent Kansas archive

Campaign archive · 2018 campaign

June 27, 2018: The Mellman Group's poll memo for the Davis campaign

The old address /wp-content/uploads/2018/06/18mem627-f-KS-2-FINAL.pdf held a PDF. Its filename matches a memo dated June 27, 2018, from the Democratic polling firm The Mellman Group to the Davis campaign. We do not host the file; this note describes it.

Original address
/campaign-archive/2018-06-poll-memo/
Date of the original item
Status
Archive note written by the Public Record editors. The campaign's original text is not reproduced.

Identifying the document

The filename's "18mem627" matches the date on a memo published by the Sunflower State Journal in July 2018 and uploaded by Daily Kos Elections: a June 27, 2018 memo from The Mellman Group to "The Paul Davis Campaign." We are confident that is the document but cannot be certain, since the original file is gone.

What the memo said

  • Fieldwork: June 13 to 18, 2018, by telephone, cell phones and landlines.
  • Sample: 600 likely November 2018 voters in the 2nd District, drawn from voter registration lists; margin of error plus or minus 4 points.
  • Head to head: Davis 39 percent, Republican state Sen. Steve Fitzgerald 34 percent. After respondents heard descriptions of both candidates, Davis 49, Fitzgerald 40.
  • Images: Davis 32 percent favorable and 11 percent unfavorable; Fitzgerald 11 and 7. President Trump's job rating 42 percent positive, 55 percent negative. Former Gov. Brownback 26 percent favorable, 66 percent unfavorable.

Reading it carefully

This was an internal poll paid for by the Davis campaign and released by it. Campaigns tend to publish the internal polls that help them. The memo also tested Davis against Fitzgerald, who finished fourth in the August 7 Republican primary with 12.2 percent; the nominee was Steve Watkins, who was not tested. Independent polls taken later were closer. New York Times/Siena found Davis ahead 45-44 in September and 41-37 in late October, while Change Research had Watkins ahead 45-44.

How it turned out

Watkins beat Davis by 0.8 points on November 6, 2018.

Sources

  1. The Mellman Group memo to the Paul Davis Campaign, June 27, 2018 (copy published by Sunflower State Journal, PDF)
  2. Scribd (Daily Kos Elections upload): KS-02: The Mellman Group (D) for Paul Davis (June 2018)
  3. Ballotpedia: Kansas' 2nd Congressional District election (August 7, 2018 Republican primary)
  4. KCUR: Perhaps the closest, roughest U.S. House race in Kansas goes down to the wire (Oct. 30, 2018)

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