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Paul Davis Public Recordan independent Kansas archive

Campaign archive · 2018 campaign

August 2017: The case for running in the 2nd District

As Davis entered the race for Congress in August 2017, his campaign posted its argument for why a Democrat could win the 2nd District. The post is not reproduced. Here are the numbers both sides were looking at.

Original address
/2017/08/heres-why-we-can-win-in-2018/
Date of the original item
August 2017
Status
Archive note written by the Public Record editors. The campaign's original text is not reproduced.

The launch

Davis launched his campaign at a stop in Topeka on August 15, 2017. He said he would work with President Trump where he could and criticize him when warranted, said he would not back Nancy Pelosi for a leadership post, and called for a constitutional amendment against "dark money." "When did bipartisanship become a threat?" he asked. Republican state Sen. Steve Fitzgerald, already in the race, said Davis lacked "the breadth or the depth of experience."

The arithmetic

The campaign's optimism rested on three facts. The seat was open: Republican Rep. Lynn Jenkins had announced in January 2017 that she would not seek a sixth term. Davis had carried the district by about six points while losing the 2014 governor's race. And the district had gone Democratic before, electing Nancy Boyda in 2006.

The other side of the ledger was just as plain. Donald Trump had carried the district by 19 points in 2016, the Cook Partisan Voter Index rated it R+10, and Republicans had won it in every election since 1994 except 2006. A conservative commentator wrote that week that running against Trump would be "a much trickier proposition than running against Brownback."

How it turned out

Forecasters moved the race toward the middle over the next year, and by October 2018 Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball all called it a toss-up. Davis lost to Steve Watkins by 2,239 votes, 46.8 percent to 47.6 percent.

Sources

  1. KCUR: Davis launches campaign for Kansas 2nd District congressional seat (Aug. 15, 2017)
  2. Washington Times (AP): Democrat Paul Davis kicks off campaign for 2nd District (Aug. 15, 2017)
  3. KCUR: Democrat Davis looks to build on 2014 showing (Dec. 7, 2017)
  4. Ballotpedia: Kansas' 2nd Congressional District election, 2018
  5. The Sentinel (opinion): Defeated Dem gubernatorial candidate Paul Davis to declare for Kansas Second District (Aug. 10, 2017)

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